Automobile retail sales in India declined 9 per cent year-on-year in September amid a massive buildup of passenger vehicle inventory due to sluggish demand, dealer's body FADA said on Monday, urging original equipment manufacturers to take corrective steps. The overall registrations declined to 17,23,330 units last month from 18,99,192 units in September 2023, as most of the categories including passenger vehicles and two-wheelers witnessed a year-on-year (Y-O-Y) drop.
'The Budget numbers presented severely underestimate the magnitude of the unstated fiscal crisis that we went through in 2018-2019, which cannot be conceivably be fully reversed in 2019-2020,' points out Rathin Roy, director, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
Fitch Ratings director Thomas Rookmaaker said India's debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to rise to 76 per cent from 70 per cent currently due to wider fiscal deficit and low economic growth.
Why did the political system in the country react to these two decisions of the Modi government in a diametrically opposite manner? asks A K Bhattacharya.
Now that the economy is growing at a higher-than-expected rate, it is time to accelerate the pace of fiscal consolidation, and the Budget could be a good starting point, argues Rajesh Kumar.
In the e2W category, which accounts for more than 60 per cent of total EV sales, volumes fell 15 per cent to 118,944 units in November, compared to 139,787 units in the previous month
Warning that the new year will be riskier than the previous two in terms of growth, inflation and the perils of monetary policy normalisation on consumption demand in particular, along with other external risks, a Wall Street brokerage has pencilled in an 8.2 per cent GDP growth next fiscal, with more downside risks to the projection. The biggest risk to the projection is a derailed consumption demand that has been the main growth driver in the past many years, said the Bank of America Securities India house economists who still believe that consumption demand will remain the key driver of growth next fiscal as well.
RBI may think twice before agreeing with suggestions of a rate cut.
On the back of sound macroeconomic policies and softer commodity prices, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures, said the Reserve Bank's annual report released on Tuesday. It, however, added that slowing global growth, protracted geopolitical tensions and a possible upsurge in financial market volatility following new stress events in the global financial system could pose downside risks to growth. "On the back of sound macroeconomic policies, softer commodity prices, a robust financial sector, a healthy corporate sector, continued fiscal policy thrust on quality of government expenditure, and new growth opportunities stemming from global realignment of supply chains, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures," it said.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday upped inflation projection for the current fiscal to 6.7 per cent from 5.7 per cent forecast in April. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the upside risk to inflation persists and the recent spike in tomato prices would fuel food inflation. Also, high global crude oil prices would add to the upside pressure on inflation. The upward revision in inflation projection comes as domestic retail inflation has remained above RBI's comfort level of 6 per cent for four months in a row, mainly due to the Russia-Ukraine war which has impacted the prices of commodities across the globe.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has said that India's economic growth in 2008-09 is estimated to have fallen below 7 per cent and is likely to remain at that level in the current fiscal on the back of fiscal and monetary initiatives.
With Donald Trump all set to become US president, Indian exporters may face high customs duties for goods like automobiles, textiles and pharmaceuticals if the new US administration decides to pursue the 'America First' agenda, opined trade experts. Experts also said that Trump could also tighten H-1B visa rules, impacting costs and growth for Indian IT firms. Over 80 per cent of India's IT export earnings come from the US, making it vulnerable to changes in visa policies.
The Indian rupee is likely to depreciate further against the US dollar through the end of 2024. This is due to the continued strengthening of the greenback, combined with the weakening of the Chinese yuan, which is expected to keep pressure on the Indian currency.
In a year bookended by intractable conflicts and geopolitical fragmentation, India focused on ramping up military prowess by broadly firming up defence procurement worth Rs 4.22 lakh crore even as Indian and Chinese militaries completed pulling back their troops from border face-off points in eastern Ladakh.
The recent stimulus measures announced by China have seen most analysts sit up and take notice.
Few finance ministers announce any taxation measure that could upset the stock market. Ms Sitharaman decided to take that risk, observes A K Bhattacharya.
India's fiscal deficit trends are a bit like an alcoholic trying, unsuccessfully, to reform. Virtue does not last for too long, says Shankar Acharya.
The challenge for the RBI in 2024 is likely to be less about containing elevated inflation and more about curbing excessive financial market exuberance and a 'problem of plenty', notes Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist JP Morgan.
'Not paying workers enough will end up being self-destructive or harmful for the corporate sector itself.'
Although its ratings outlook for foreign currency and local currency is stable, Moody's outlook for the country says it faces challenges in macroeconomic management and a backlog of structural reforms. "India's ratings are based on the assessment of the country's moderate levels of economic and institutional strength, that are supported by a rapidly growing and well-diversified economic structure," said Aninda Mitra, VP and senior analyst at Moody's.
The government will provide Rs 11.11 lakh crore for capital expenditure for 2024-25 and introduce viability gap funding to spur private investment in infrastructure, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Tuesday. Presenting the Union Budget for FY2024-25, she said that the government will endeavour to maintain strong fiscal support for infrastructure over the next five years, in conjunction with imperatives of other priorities and fiscal consolidation.
Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran considers absolute poverty a more direct and pressing concern for India. He argues that inequality is a relative concept. Simultaneously, with formerly economically deprived sections joining the ranks of the middle class, policy attention needs to extend beyond 'roti, kapda, makaan' to keep the growth engine up and running.
'The Budget needs to focus more on social welfare schemes.'
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday said people are finding current interest rates "very stressful" and urged banks to make them affordable. Speaking at an event organised by State Bank of India, the finance minister said that at present, India requires industry to ramp up and invest in new facilities, and added that lowering lending rates can help achieve the "Viksit Bharat" aspiration.
From the 30 Sensex firms, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Power Grid, HDFC Bank, Tata Motors and Larsen & Toubro were the biggest gainers. Hindustan Unilever, Infosys, Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and UltraTech Cement were among the laggards.
Gross GST collection grew 9 per cent to over Rs 1.87 lakh crore in October on higher revenues from domestic transactions. The Central GST collection stood at Rs 33,821 crore, State GST at Rs 41,864 crore, Integrated IGST at Rs 99,111 crore and cess at Rs 12,550 crore.
Clean air needs action all year round; and that it will work only if we act jointly and at scale, asserts Sunita Narain.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday retained the retail inflation projection at 4.5 per cent for fiscal 2024-25, with Governor Shaktikanta Das stressing that the central bank will have to closely monitor the price situation and keep the "inflation horse" under tight leash lest it may bolt again. Unveiling the October bi-monthly monetary policy, the Governor also said the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) framework has completed 8 years since its introduction in 2016 and is a major structural reform of the 21st century in India.
From the Sensex pack, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zones, Mahindra & Mahindra, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, State Bank of India, UltraTech Cement and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major gainers. In contrast, Tata Steel, Titan, Bajaj Finserv, JSW Steel, Bajaj Finance, Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Tata Motors and Tata Consultancy Services were among the laggards.
The Reserve Bank is unlikely to ease the benchmark policy rate during 2024 given the uncertainty over food inflation, State Bank of India (SBI) chairman C S Setty has said. The US Federal Reserve's first cut in interest rates in more than four years is expected soon, triggering central banks in other economies to follow suit. "On the rate front, a lot of central banks are taking independent calls.
Shigeru Ishiba is expected to prioritise strengthening Japan's military capabilities and fostering deeper international partnerships, particularly with India, with whom Japan shares significant strategic interests, explains Dr Rajaram Panda.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said the economy is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal notwithstanding deficient rains in August. India recorded economic growth of 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 against 13.1 per cent in the year-ago period. India's economy in Q1 grew at the fastest pace in a year, on the shoulders of a boost in capital expenditure both at central and state levels, along with stronger consumption demand, especially in rural areas, and improved performance in the services sector, he said.
India added nearly 4.7 crore jobs during 2023-24, taking the total number of employed people to 64.33 crore spread over 27 sectors covering the entire economy, according to Reserve Bank data. The number of employed people was 59.67 crore at the end of March 2023, said the RBI's update on 'Measuring Productivity at the Industry Level-The India KLEMS [Capital (K), Labour (L), Energy (E), Material (M) and Services (S)] Database'.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday decided to keep policy rate unchanged for third time in a row as it maintains heightened vigil on inflation. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022.
Key lending rate (repo) raised by 50 basis points to 4.9 per cent; 2nd increase in 5 weeks
The government on Monday lowered the growth projection for the current financial year to 5.7-5.9 per cent from 7.6 per cent estimated earlier, while pitching for supportive monetary and fiscal policies to improve investor confidence.
Inflation to peak in the current quarter within tolerance band, moderating in the second half of next fiscal, says central bank.
A freebie once granted can hardly be discontinued. All that can happen is to substitute it with a bigger freebie, notes A K Bhattacharya.
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