Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty declined nearly 1 per cent on Wednesday, falling for the fourth day running amid profit-taking by cautious investors ahead of the results of the Lok Sabha polls. The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 667.55 points or 0.89 per cent to settle at 74,502.90. It went below the 75,000 mark to hit the day's low of 74,454.55, plunging 715.9 points or 0.95 per cent.
From FY20 to FY24, the revenue forgone due to tax incentives for individuals and Hindu undivided families stood at Rs 8.7 trillion, significantly higher than the Rs 4.53 trillion forgone for corporations.
Indian economy is in a sweet spot, with a mix of solid growth and moderating inflation, Moody's Ratings said, forecasting a 7.2 per cent GDP growth in the 2024 calendar year and 6.6 per cent in the next. In its Global Macro Outlook 2025-26, the rating agency said the global economy has shown remarkable resilience in bouncing back from supply chain disruptions during the pandemic, an energy and food crisis after the Russia-Ukraine war began, high inflation and consequent monetary policy tightening.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday raised India's growth forecast for the current financial year to 6.4 per cent, from 6 per cent, saying that robust domestic momentum has offset headwinds from high food inflation and weak exports. The US-based rating agency, however, has cut growth estimates for the next fiscal (2024-25) to 6.4 per cent, as it expects growth to slow in the second half (October-March) of the current fiscal, on higher base impact and subdued global growth.
India will need to grow at an average 7.8 per cent to become a high-income country by 2047, a World Bank report said on Friday. To achieve this goal India would require reforms in financial sector as well as in land and labour market, the World Bank said in its India Country Memorandum titled 'Becoming a High-Income Economy in a generation'.
The rupee tumbled 3 per cent against the US dollar in 2024 as concerns over slower economic growth and a stronger greenback in global markets weighed, but it was among the least volatile currencies in the world and the headwinds may be less intense in the coming year.
Let's wait for the monetary policy on February 8 -- to see how it complements the fiscal commitments, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
In a virtual briefing, Royce Murray, assistant secretary for Border and Immigration Policy, US DHS, in response to a query related to the October 22 charter flight that deported a batch of Indian nationals, said, "no minor" among them on that removal flight, adding these were all male and female adults.
Three policymakers aware of the central bank's deliberations on the Budget said they are combing through the numbers to test how Jaitley struck a balance, and question some of the assumptions.
Buoyed by over 17 per cent of industrial growth in April,the highest for 2010 so far, Planning Commission on Friday said the government's policies were "working" and that it should continue with gradual withdrawal of stimulus.
'It has also outlived its initial purpose of reducing physical gold imports.'
Trading sentiment in the equity market this week will be guided by global trends, foreign fund movement, macroeconomic data announcements and RBI's interest rate decision, analysts said. The monthly auto sales data announcement would also be tracked by investors this week.
'If the BJP detoxifies the nuclear liability law, it will bring economic, environmental and, most of all, strategic benefits.' 'Let's keep our fingers crossed and hope that this Budget promise is met soon -- ideally, before Mr Modi heads to his first meeting with Trump 2.0,' observes Shekhar Gupta.
Dr Nagesh Kumar, one of the three new MPC members, wanted the MPC to reduce the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%.
Backing embattled Adani Group, rating agency CRISIL Ratings on Friday said the conglomerate has sufficient liquidity and operational cash flows to meet debt obligations and committed capex and that there has been no negative actions so far by lenders and investors following the US indictment of group founder chairman. The Adani Group, which has the flexibility to reduce certain discretionary capital expenditure (capex) depending on developments in financial markets and future capital availability, has a healthy Ebitda and cash balance that reduces its dependence on external debt to sustain operations, it said in a bulletin.
The finance minister, in her Budget speech, should focus more on what she is directly responsible for, rather than on programmes where her role is largely supportive, notes Nitin Desai.
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday said the FY25 Budget demonstrated the government's ongoing commitment to reducing fiscal deficit and ensured policy continuity during the NDA government's new term. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday presented the first Budget of the Modi 3.0 government in which she revised the deficit target for current fiscal lower to 4.9 per cent of the GDP, from 5.1 per cent projected in the interim Budget.
The Indian economy is recovering from the slowdown in momentum witnessed in the September quarter, driven by strong festival activity and a sustained upswing in rural demand, according to a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) bulletin released on Tuesday. An article on the 'State of the Economy' in the December bulletin noted that the global economy continues to exhibit resilience with steady growth and moderating inflation.
The Budget 2025-26 meets the expectations of fiscal consolidation, maintaining capital expenditure, and boosting consumption through tax cuts.
Economists at the country's largest lender SBI on Wednesday said they see Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5 per cent in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and if it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7 per cent. It can be noted that the April-June period saw the real GDP expanding by 6.7 per cent, the lowest in 15 quarters.
'The Budget numbers presented severely underestimate the magnitude of the unstated fiscal crisis that we went through in 2018-2019, which cannot be conceivably be fully reversed in 2019-2020,' points out Rathin Roy, director, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
Benchmark interest rate hiked by 50 basis points to 3-year high at 5.90 per cent. Economic growth projection for FY23 cut to 7% from 7.2% estimated in August. GDP expected to grow at 6.3% in September quarter, 4.6% each in December and March quarters.
Fitch Ratings director Thomas Rookmaaker said India's debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to rise to 76 per cent from 70 per cent currently due to wider fiscal deficit and low economic growth.
Moody's Ratings on Tuesday projected general government debt to stabilise above 80 per cent of GDP over the next three years, down from 89.3 per cent in 2020-21. "General government interest payments to fall to around 24 per cent of general government revenue over the next two years from over 28 per cent in fiscal 2020-21, although this remains much higher than the median 8.7 per cent recorded by Baa-rated peers," Moody's Ratings associate managing director Gene Fang said in a post-Budget reaction.
Recognising job creation for the youth as the foremost challenge for the economy, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday announced a comprehensive Prime Minister's package to facilitate the employment and skilling of 41 million youth with a central outlay of Rs 2 trillion over the next five-year period. The package will consist of five schemes and initiatives - three focused on jobs and two on skilling.
'The intensity and frequency of heatwaves will be much higher than in previous years over Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha.'
S&P Global Ratings on Friday said it will watch the fiscal numbers for the next 1-2 years, besides pro-growth policies of the new government, before deciding on India's sovereign rating upgrade. S&P, which earlier this week upgraded India's outlook to positive while retaining the sovereign rating at BBB-, expects the new government to continue with pro-growth policies, infrastructure investment and commitment to fiscal consolidation.
India will unveil its much-awaited new Foreign Trade Policy 2023-28 on Friday, with a view to boost exports amid slowing global trade. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal will announce the foreign trade policy, according to the ministry. The current foreign trade policy (2015-20) is in force till March 31, 2022.
'This government has always been fiscally conservative. It never resorted to fiscal profligacy.'
Any reduction in the customs duty on smartphone parts in the forthcoming budget will harm India's developing component ecosystem, discourage investment, increase imports, and make local firms uncompetitive, potentially resulting in job losses, think tank GTRI said on Tuesday. India's smartphone industry is a 'Make in India' success story, with 2023-24 production reaching $49.2 billion and exports at $15.6 billion, making smartphones the fourth-largest export after diesel, aviation fuel, and polished diamonds.
RBI may think twice before agreeing with suggestions of a rate cut.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has said that India's economic growth in 2008-09 is estimated to have fallen below 7 per cent and is likely to remain at that level in the current fiscal on the back of fiscal and monetary initiatives.
'Maharashtra is virtually in a debt trap.'
Following are comments from economists at leading financial institutions, banks and rating agencies on the interim Budget:
In a significant policy shift aimed at boosting agri-productivity and rural prosperity, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday announced six new agricultural schemes while increasing the subsidised Kisan Credit Card loan limit to Rs 5 lakh from the existing Rs 3 lakh, benefiting 7.7 crore farmers, fishermen, and dairy farmers.
India's fiscal deficit trends are a bit like an alcoholic trying, unsuccessfully, to reform. Virtue does not last for too long, says Shankar Acharya.
Although its ratings outlook for foreign currency and local currency is stable, Moody's outlook for the country says it faces challenges in macroeconomic management and a backlog of structural reforms. "India's ratings are based on the assessment of the country's moderate levels of economic and institutional strength, that are supported by a rapidly growing and well-diversified economic structure," said Aninda Mitra, VP and senior analyst at Moody's.
'2025 is the year to build a portfolio for the future. Focus this year should be on valuations and visible growth.'
Warning that the new year will be riskier than the previous two in terms of growth, inflation and the perils of monetary policy normalisation on consumption demand in particular, along with other external risks, a Wall Street brokerage has pencilled in an 8.2 per cent GDP growth next fiscal, with more downside risks to the projection. The biggest risk to the projection is a derailed consumption demand that has been the main growth driver in the past many years, said the Bank of America Securities India house economists who still believe that consumption demand will remain the key driver of growth next fiscal as well.
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